Your business might fail because you are too optimistic. You are so sure that your idea is going to work, you invest a bunch of money, and then it fails and you are out more than you can reasonably recoup.

Your business might stagger because you are too pessimistic. You brought in 25k each month for the last three months, but you fear that it will continue. In fact you are sure it is not going to continue because you are convinced it was just a fluke because of X, Y, or Z. And because you are sure it is a fluke, you do not make the investment to grow your business and then you fail because you never got far enough off the ground.

There is a huge middle ground, but if we are careful it can feel like we are walking a tight rope with only one option ahead.

The key might be finding a way to take the risks while minimizing the downside.